Insights
Understand the method
Writing meant to make you better at judging a signal — including at judging ours critically.
Fundamentals
What an edge actually is
An edge is not a prediction that something will happen. It is a claim that the price is wrong — and those are very different things.
5 min read
MethodClosing-line value: the only fast honesty test
Win rate takes thousands of bets to become meaningful. Closing-line value tells you something real far sooner.
6 min read
DisciplineBankroll and unit sizing
The most reliable way to lose money with a genuine edge is to stake badly. Sizing matters more than any single signal.
5 min read