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Professional football

NFL signals

Football lives on key numbers. A half-point across 3 or 7 changes the value of a position more than almost any other move in sport.

What the model weighs

  • EPA per play differential
  • Pressure and protection rates
  • Key numbers at 3 and 7
  • Weather and wind
  • Rest and short weeks

Markets covered

MoneylineSpreadGame TotalTeam TotalFirst HalfQuarterPlayer Props

Published NFL signals

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NFLLean SignalPublished

BAL@KC

in 1d 21h

Under 47.5

Total · Full game · DraftKings

Est. Edge

+1.9%

Confidence

63

Current

-108 (1.93)

47.5

Min Accept

-115 (1.87)

47

Fair

-118 (1.85)

Why this signal

Pace (neutral)27.1 s/playWind12 mph

Risk factors

  • Total already moved a full point
-110 (1.91)-108 (1.93)Risk Medium8m ago